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Derk’s blog » odds

Archive for the ‘odds’ Category

Breaking down the A9 call of Russell Thomas

October 30, 2012 | 4:35 am | Derk

I have been working with Russell Thomas the past couple of months on short stack play and ICM issues.  I am doing an entire series of videos about my work with him over on PokerVT.com where I make poker training videos. You can also check out more of his training he did with Jason [...]

Gambling theory problem/puzzle solution

June 1, 2011 | 2:07 pm | Derk

I originally posted a problem about a week ago here and an update with a hint here. If you haven’t read those, please do and give it a try before reading the solution.
Here’s a restatement of the problem:
You deposit $400 in an online casino and are given a $100 bonus immediately, so you have [...]

Theory problem update

May 30, 2011 | 11:49 am | Derk

It’s been a few days since I first posted my puzzle. If you missed it, you can find it here. Aside from the comments there, there is also some discussion about it going on over at Poker VT which you can see here (no account needed). People have also talked to me [...]

Should you ever fold aces?

November 26, 2008 | 11:36 pm | Derk

A recent post in the PITR forums had a guy asking about folding QQ on the bubble of a traditional SNG (sit-and-go) with a very short stack, and where the big stack had raised in front of him and he would almost certainly make the money. This reminded me of a thread I’ve seen pop [...]

Probability and outs

November 19, 2008 | 9:52 pm | Derk

Today JCarver posed a question in IRC that he was asked by someone but wasn’t sure how to answer. It was “If you have 15 outs on the flop, you’re about 30% to hit on the turn, but only 54% to hit by the river, why?” (these numbers are slightly off, but for the [...]